UPDATE 10:30 p.m. ET: It’s getting late, and I’ve got to be up early Wednesday morning. Republicans have been slaughtered in this election. How bad is it? Ohio hasn’t elected a Democratic governor since 2006, but that’s what they did tonight.
Good-night, America. We shall fight on, somehow.
UPDATE 10:30 p.m. ET: Right now, at this moment, Democrats are leading in more than 50 House districts currently represented by Republicans. It’s looking like a historic “blue wave.” Early tonight, I told you that Republican Victoria Spartz won with 57% in Indiana’s 5th District two years ago. Now, with more than 90% of the vote counted:
Spartz (R) …….. 121,652 (48.2%)
Ford (D) ………. 130,689 (51.8%)
Also, CNN just called South Carolina’s Senate race for the Democrat. I’m shocked.
UPDATE 9:50 p.m. ET: Just in case you weren’t getting enough bad news tonight, are you ready for Speaker of the House Hakeem Jeffries?
UPDATE 9:40 p.m. ET: The situation in Texas looks dreadful. More than half of the votes have been counted, and Talarico is leading by 20 points? Crazy.
Paxton (R) ……… 2,164,674 (39.1%)
Talarico (D) ……. 3,286,120 (59.4%)
UPDATE 9:35 p.m. ET: Good news and bad news. The bad news is, the wretched former mayor of Atlanta has been elected governor of Georgia. The good news is, Byron Donald has been elected governor of Florida. Not a lot of good news tonight for Republicans.
UPDATE 9:15 p.m. ET: OK, here’s two seats that I figured were good for Republicans. In Michigan, Democrats nominated Jew-hating socialist Abdul El Sayed, which ought to have made it a layup for Republican Mike Rogers. And in Texas, Democrats nominated non-binary freak James Talarico, which should have made it a walk-in for Ken Paxton. But things are not looking so good right now.
MICHIGAN (14% reporting)
Rogers (R) ………. 293,225 (43.4%)
El Sayed (D) …….. 370,974 (55.0%)
TEXAS (40% reporting)
Paxton (R) ……… 1,642,762 (39.3%)
Talarico (D) ……. 2,472,414 (59.2%)
These are not good numbers for Republicans, obviously. Still early, but the Democrats have substantial leads in both of these states.
UPDATE 8:55 p.m. ET: After being appointed to fill her late brother’s Senate seat in South Carolina, Sen. Darline Graham is being challenged by Democrat Annie Andrews, and it’s looking kind of scary. With 52% counted:
Graham (R) ……….. 497,372 (46.0%)
Andrews (D) ………. 564,812 (52.3%)
Again, Graham may actually pull out a win here, but this is a state that Trump won with 58% two years ago. Project that shift nationwide, and things could get scary for the GOP.
UPDATE 8:40 p.m. ET: In Florida, while Ashley Moody has now been called as winning the Florida Senate race, in the gubernatorial contest, Republican Byron Donalds is barely beating Democrat David Jolly with 95% counted:
Donalds (R) ……….. 3,942,784 (49.8%)
Jolly (D) …………. 3,879,948 (49.0%)
Moody (R) ……….. 4,036,884 (50.7%)
Nixon (D) ……….. 3,836,709 (48.2%)
UPDATE 8:20 p.m. ET: Things are now looking quite bad for Republicans. Remember, Republican Victoria Spartz won with 57% in Indiana’s 5th District two years ago. Tonight, with 65% of the vote counted:
Spartz (R) …….. 78,466 (44.6%)
Ford (D) ………. 97,617 (55.4%)
Margins matter, when you’re looking at bellwethers. Even if Spartz can come back to hold this district for the GOP, she’s not going to be anywhere near her 2024 level, which indicates a significant shift toward Democrats.
UPDATE 8:10 p.m. ET: Disappointing for Republicans, but perhaps not surprising, Sen. Jon Ossoff has been reelected in Georgia.
Ossoff looks to win by a double-digit margin, which is not a good omen for Republicans.
UPDATE 7:55 p.m. ET: After Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance was elected vice president, Gov. Mike DeWine appointed Jon Husted to fill the seat. Now, Husted is running for reelection for the remaining two years of Vance’s term, against former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown. With 18% of the vote counted tonight:
Husted (R) …………… 225,456 (33.4%)
Brown (D) ……………. 428,589 (63.6%)
This is a state Trump carried with 55% of the vote, so not only would a loss by Husted endanger the Republican Senate majority, but it might be a bellwether of further Democrat gains nationwide.
UPDATE 7:35 p.m. ET: In Florida, former state attorney general Ashley Moody was appointed to fill Marco Rubio’s Senate seat after Rubio was picked as Trump’s Secretary of State. Moody is running for reelection against an absolute nutcase, Democrat Angie Nixon. Trump won Florida two years ago with 56%. So far tonight, with 63% of the vote counted:
Moody (R) ……….. 2,590,654 (49.0%)
Nixon (D) ……….. 2,643,118 (49.9%)
Moody is very likely to win, but the margin matters as a bellwether.
UPDATE 7:15 p.m. ET: Indiana’s 5th District is suburban Indianapolis. Two years ago, Republican Victoria Spartz won with 57%. With 35% of the vote counted:
Spartz (R) …….. 36,868 (39.2%)
Ford (D) ………. 57,204 (60.8%)
This doesn’t look good for Republicans, but we’ll wait and see.
UPDATE 7 p.m. ET: Kentucky’s 4th District is currently represented by Republican Thomas Massie, who got beat in the May primary by Trump-endorsed Ed Gallrein. This district went 75% for Massie two years ago and, while Gallrein is expected to coast to victory, it’s important to watch the margin here, where he is facing Democrat Melissa Strange. With just 2% of the vote counted so far:
Gallrein (R) …………. 4,328 (61.8%)
Strange (D) ………….. 2,426 (34.7%)
Remember, it’s the margin we’re watching in this race.
UPDATE 6:25 p.m. ET: In Indiana’s 3rd Congressional District, around Fort Wayne, Republican Rep. Marlin Stutzman is challenged by Democrat Kelly Thompson. In 2024, Stutzman carried this district more than 2-to-1. With 29% of the vote counted:
Stutzman (R) …………. 26,805 (41.8%)
Thompson (D) …………. 37,360 (58.2%)
That’s likely to switch to Stutzman as the night goes on, but remember, he got 65% of the vote two years ago. We’re watching this as a bellwether of the trend.
*** PREVIOUSLY ***
The first polls close in Kentucky and Indiana at 6 p.m. ET, followed at 7 p.m. ET by Georgia, South Carolina, Virginia and Vermont. There are certain “bellwether” counties to watch in each of these states, to get an idea of whether a “blue wave” scenario is happening, and just how big such a wave might be. Very few observers expect Republicans to maintain their slender majority in the House of Representatives, but the Senate is a whole ’nother thing.
Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to take control of the upper chamber and, considering what the map looks like, that would require a “wave” big enough to switch several states that Trump won by substantial margins in 2024. Republicans are expected to lose North Carolina (the seat currently held by Thom Tillis), but could neutralize that loss if they can beat Abdul El Sayed in Michigan (the seat currently held by Gary Peters). My hunch — just a hunch — is that Susan Collins will prevail in Maine, where polls close at 8 p.m. ET, but where results will likely be slow to come in.
My office TV is currently tuned to CNN, where they’re citing exit poll numbers that sound very bad for Republicans, but I’ll take that with a grain of salt. Once we start getting actual vote totals, I’ll report those, so refresh this page every half-hour or so.
